The Penta Swing State Snapshot: The Surge in Newly Registered Voters
This week's Penta Swing State Snapshot analyzes public voter registration data and its potential impact on the 2024 Election.
Whether motivated to vote by issues like inflation, housing, abortion, or immigration, the data shows a surge in newly registered voters since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for President, particularly among younger voters.
Voter registration data is an important metric because current public polls reflect registered or likely voter samples, based on previous voting histories. Newly registered voters are often not included in these samples, though they are more likely to cast a ballot if they took the time to register this close to an election.
With the 2024 presidential race likely to be decided by a few thousand votes in a handful of counties across seven swing states, newly registered voters can, literally, swing the election.
Let’s take a look at the national data:
- Since President Biden withdrew from the Election in July, an estimated 2.4 million individuals have registered to vote. 51% registered as Democrat and 29% registered as Republican, with the remainder unaffiliated. This includes over 500,000 newly registered voters in the week after Biden dropped from the race.
- The "Taylor Swift Effect": Swift's post-debate endorsement of Harris, and her call for her 294 million Instagram followers to register to vote via Vote.org, triggered another surge in voter registrations. The site saw around 400,000 visitors in just 24 hours, compared to its usual 30,000 daily visitors.
- Overall, during the 2024 election cycle, Vote.org reports that young voters account for 79% of the newly registered on the site—an oversized majority.
- Why this matters: Vote.org tracks an 81% rate of converting registrations to voters.
- However, despite the Swift bounce and Harris ticket-switch surge, the number of newly registered voters overall is still well below 2020 and 2022 registration numbers.
Voter registration in the swing states:
- Of the newly registered voters on Vote.org, 17% live in the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).
- Pennsylvania is ground zero for voter registration relative to other swing states—yet another sign the campaigns recognize Pennsylvania's importance to the Electoral College math.
- While the total number of newly registered voters may be lower in the swing states than in 2020, the share of registered voters registering as Democrats is higher.
- In North Carolina, since Harris became the nominee, the percentage of newly registered voters registering as Democrat is 51%, compared to around 37% in 2020.
- In Pennsylvania, since Harris became the nominee, voter registration has been around 50% Democrat and 38% Republican. In 2020, over the same period, the party affiliation split was the inverse: 51% Republican to 34% Democrat.
- The number of newly registered Black voters and female voters in the swing states has increased since Biden left the race.
- The number of newly registered Hispanic voters is trending downwards after an initial surge the week Biden withdrew from the race.
For a unique analysis of how campaigns are reacting to the surge in voter registration, and what this means for the policy conversation, check back here every Monday for the Penta Swing State Snapshot. We've got you covered.
Source: The TargetSmart Voter Registration Dashboard. The data comes from TargetSmart analysis of data that has been released by individual state election officials. A new registrant is classified as anyone who has a voter file registration date that occurred after the 46th week (election day) the year before. New registrants could be folks registering for the first time, or updating their registration after an out of state move.
Modeled partisanship: Where self-reported party is not available, a TargetSmart model is used.
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