Yielding Insights: Cultivating Change in European Agriculture

As the European Parliament elections draw near, a wave of farmers' protests is sweeping across Europe. Farmers from diverse regions are voicing their frustrations over market dynamics, policy failures, and environmental concerns.

Farmers protest against stiff competition from inexpensive imports from Ukraine, coupled with rising production costs and concerns over the environmental impacts of initiatives under the Green Deal strategy, which aims to enhance agricultural sustainability.

The timing of these protests, coinciding with the European Parliament elections, adds a political dimension to the movement. Farmers are leveraging their collective voice to demand greater attention from policymakers and to influence the direction of agricultural policies at the European level.

With less than two months to go, candidates vying for seats in the European Parliament are being forced to reckon with the demands of rural voters, who represent a significant constituency with the power to sway electoral outcomes.

The European Commission has already made political decisions catering to farmers' concerns. For example, it proposed simplifying certain aspects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), including some conditionality requirements with which EU farmers must comply. The "conditionality of the CAP" requires farmers to adhere to EU laws and standards concerning environmental protection, public and animal health, animal welfare, and land management. Not adhering to these regulations leads to decreased CAP support.

Member states face heightened pressure as they gear up for the upcoming European, national, and regional elections. Most recently, Poland held its regional elections; in the past months, Polish farmers have been protesting against EU climate policies and food imports from Ukraine, with some blockading checkpoints with Ukraine.

The growing discontent among farmers has had an impact on voter sentiment and political dynamics, resulting in a victory for the right wing party PiS, which boasts a significant support base among farmers.

In the context of these protests, Poland was one of the member states that advocated for further restrictions on agricultural imports from Ukraine, particularly in the context of potentially extending the suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports for another year.

Across Europe, there is a rise in the number of parties focusing specifically on farming and agriculture issues. In the Netherlands, for instance, the BBB (BoerBurgerBeweging), the farmers’ party, has become the largest party in all provinces and is now the largest party in the Senate.

Penta Policy Research

During our Policymaker Research, conducted from March to August 2023, Penta surveyed over 600 policymakers in the EU and its member states. Our findings indicate that policymakers are keenly aware of the significant influence and lobbying power wielded by European farmers. For example, according to a Commission policy officer, "there are certain farmers' organizations that also have a presence in Brussels [which] certainly plays a huge role for the leading political parties in the European Parliament."

When it comes to the reasons farmers are so influential, policymakers acknowledge that farmers can have sway in the European policy making landscape not only because food is an essential need for European citizens but also because food and agriculture are tied into larger policy issues of strategic autonomy and sustainability.

According to an MEP from the Left, "Food prices in Europe [are a priority]. Ukraine has been invaded; quite a big issue for the whole world because of the wheat. Then there is the strategic autonomy in food, and the member states are all really, really interested in their own production."

Policymakers are also aware of the growing tensions between farmers and the environmental agenda of the European Green Deal.

According to a policy adviser of a member state in Eastern Europe, "What we hear mostly about [the agricultural] industry is the problems they have with the energy and green transition… It's a prime example of how lofty objectives of green transition can really perceptively hurt consumers because they hurt producers of the most basic goods, like food, which we all need."

Based on the research results and recent concessions by the EU, policymakers are responsive to farmers' concerns. However, there remains uncertainty about the level of support from European citizens. Although forecasts indicate a more significant-than-anticipated decrease in inflation rates, enduring challenges persist, impacting a fundamental human need—food.

Yet, the question remains: Do European citizens rally behind the farmers' cause?

Penta’s insights and findings

Using the Penta Live platform to generate insights data, we looked at the volume and perception of farmers' activism, dating back two years, starting in March 2022, a month after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Between March 2022 and February 2023, the observed pattern is intriguing, characterised by a surge in activity and visibility in March, shortly after invasion, a much higher spike in June, and culminating in the highest peak in July (∼1.6M). These last peaks align with the EU's temporary lifting of import restrictions from Ukraine and opening solidarity lanes, resulting in an influx of Ukrainian goods into the EU market. Consequently, prices experienced a significant decline, particularly in bordering member states, leading to the spread of farmers' protests across the continent.

Most publications were by traditional print and online news outlets, followed by consumer titles and then Twitter. Interestingly, looking at the overall sentiment we can observe it is neutral primarily (49%) and negative (46%), with only 5% showing a positive tone, implying no sweep support.

From March 2023, sustained coverage has been given to farmers' activism, yet we see a significant surge of visibility in December (∼1M). The movement really got momentum in January (∼5M), when the farmer's protests descended in Brussels, which interestingly were followed by a withdrawal of the contentious proposed Sustainable Use of Pesticides Regulation in early February. February saw a sharp increase (the numbers in February were 20 times more than in December- ∼21M), coinciding with further farmers' protests.

While consumers are mostly reacting, followed by news outlets, there is an increase in neutral sentiment (up to 56%) and a decline in positive sentiment (down to 4%), implying a minor decrease in support.

Since February, visibility has decreased significantly, though it remained relatively high (∼5M), coinciding with protests by Polish, Spanish, French, and Italian farmers, alongside a consistently low 4% positive sentiment.

It's noteworthy that the mid-April protest staged by Dutch farmers in Brussels, despite not featuring the dramatic sight of tractors crowding city streets and being comparatively less disruptive than prior protests, did not capture the interest of apathetic citizens (∼500K).

From a reader's perspective, it does not seem favourable for European farmers as citizens do not seem convinced. Furthermore, we do not see other groups rallying around farmers to support their cause.

It is also interesting to look at the recent results of the Parliament's Spring 2024 Eurobarometer, shedding light on the prevailing preferences for priority values in the next term.

Looking ahead, EU citizens place defense and security (37%) at the forefront of efforts to strengthen the EU's global position, with energy matters and ensuring food security and agriculture closely following suit (both at 30%).

Food security and priorities

If European consumers are concerned about food security, why are farmers' protests not generating greater consumer support? While talking about human necessity- food- the message does not seem to land among European society at large. This prompts the question - why?

One could seek different reasons; it could be due to the disruptive nature of some protests, where demonstrators dump manure and set tires on fire, blocking cities' circulation with tractors.

It could be because the Common Agricultural Policy has the most substantive share of the EU budget, accounting for approximately one-third of it.

But most importantly, the communicated protest's goals do not clearly state that it is also about food security and affordability, an issue that should be crucial to European society. It raises pertinent questions about the balance between agricultural interests and broader societal concerns within the EU. While recent concessions suggest policymakers are attentive to farmers' grievances, the extent of support from European citizens for farmers' protests does not seem to coincide.

How is this likely to play out?

Despite the fundamental importance of food production, citizen sentiment toward farmers' demands could be more favourable. Understanding and addressing these dynamics are crucial for policymakers seeking to reconcile competing interests and foster a cohesive approach to agricultural policy within the EU and for the farmers, who should get the citizens by their side.

In some member states, like the Netherlands, that message seems to resonate better, translating into consolidated political power with significant support from farmers. However, that is not reflected consistently across the EU, and the extent to which this will translate into substantial political realignment is unclear.

Leaked documents indicate that EU leaders are considering making food security a priority for the 2024-2029 mandate. As a first step, prioritizing food security in its strategic agenda and taking proactive measures to address the concerns raised by farmers' protests while also considering broader societal interests, the EU can strive to develop a cohesive approach to agricultural policy that serves the interests of both farmers and citizens alike and possibly.

However, simply prioritizing food security and addressing farmers' concerns may not be sufficient to win over citizen support. Additional efforts may be necessary to bridge this gap and gain broader public support for agricultural initiatives.

To all readers interested in our Penta Policy Research, our insight’s data seeking to understand the current advocacy landscape and how you can improve your engagement coupled with data-based strategic advice, we invite you to reach out to us.
Contact us below to discuss how we can support your goals and initiatives.

At the time of writing, this issue is still fluid and changing daily. Our interpretation of the data relies on a snapshot in time, analysing publicly available data points from March 2022 to April 2024.

Penta Policy Insiders will conduct our fourth annual Policymakers Research initiative this summer. The project will uncover fresh insights and perspectives from policymakers across the EU and compare the year-over-year priority shifts that dictate the trends and conversations in Brussels. The study will be conducted alongside our annual U.S. Federal and State research to provide a comprehensive picture of the policymaking landscape in two of the most influential international policy jurisdictions. Contact us if you would like to hear more about the upcoming research.