French National Assembly Election: Strategic Alliances and Political Implications

A new National Assembly was elected yesterday evening. As with every election, there were surprising takeaways, especially considering that the final results only started to take shape a couple of days before the end of last week.

Rassemblement National's performance

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella's efforts fell short of securing the 289 seats needed for a majority in the National Assembly, achieving only 142 MPs. Despite this underperformance, they did increase their seats by 58% and garnered the highest voter share at 36.18%. This outcome can be attributed to the "Republican Front" strategy, which was effectively executed through coordinated efforts by major political parties.

Leaders from Les Républicains (LR), the Socialist Party (PS), La République En Marche (LREM), the Greens, and La France Insoumise (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) issued clear instructions to their supporters to vote for any candidate opposing the RN in the second round. Strategic local agreements and withdrawals further consolidated votes against the RN. Additionally, the fear of an RN surge drove higher voter turnout, benefiting traditional party candidates.

Nouveau Front Populaire - a major tactical victory

The Republican Front strategy has significantly benefited the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), enabling them to secure a narrow relative majority with 178 out of 577 seats. This was achieved by attracting voters from other parties who were more willing to support an NFP candidate to block an RN victory. The NFP's strong local presence and the appeal of their candidates further contributed to their success in key constituencies.

Their effective use of the electoral system, strategic alliances, and well-regarded, locally entrenched candidates allowed them to win more deputies. Despite having fewer overall voters at 25.18%, the NFP leveraged the dynamics of France's two-round majoritarian electoral system, which favors coalitions that consolidate support in the second round.

By uniting diverse parties and movements, they garnered broader support and achieved a geographically uniform vote distribution, allowing them to win more seats with fewer total votes. 

However, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) is highly likely to implode. The coalition faces an imminent risk of disintegration due to its broad ideological spectrum, which fosters internal conflicts and policy disagreements. Leadership rivalries and power struggles further strain cohesion, while maintaining unified electoral strategies proves challenging as local candidates prioritize their interests. External pressures and targeted political attacks exploit these internal divisions, undermining stability.

These factors collectively jeopardize the coalition's long-term viability and threaten its ability to maintain cohesive and effective governance. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party, La France Insoumise, has not managed to gain more seats. The NFP's success and new MPs primarily come from the Socialists (+109% seats) and the Greens (+47% seats). Both parties are likely to leave the NFP to form new alliances.

Macron's successful gamble?

The president's coalition in the national assembly has suffered heavy losses. The governing parties have lost many seats: Renaissance 42% less seats, the MoDem 27% less seats and Horizons 13% less seats. However, the presidential coalition is still a major political force with 156 MPs which is more than RN.

The French President now needs the support of at least 133 MPs to be able to have a stable majority and appoint a new government. Macron needs to reach out to centrist and moderate members of other parties, including Les Républicains (LR) and the Socialist Party (PS), to form a broad coalition. By appealing to shared interests and pragmatic governance, he can create a stable majority that spans the political spectrum.

If he succeeds, he will have won his gamble but will need to make considerable concessions to his new political allies, potentially shifting French national policy more to the left and excluding Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Next steps

We do not anticipate Macron appointing a new government before the Olympics. The current government will also be unable to oversee any significant legislative work, meaning it will only be able to adopt minor regulations and manage routine matters ("les affaires courantes"). French political institutions are currently paralyzed.

In the meantime, Macron needs to negotiate a new political balance, primarily with the left, to form a new government capable of preparing a new budget this summer. Failure in this political endeavor would mark the most disastrous gamble in the history of the French Fifth Republic. From a stakeholder engagement perspective, building key relationships with major state agencies, staff, and administration is crucial until there is a new clear political strategy which would result from a broad consensus.