The Penta Swing State Snapshot: Still Waiting for the October Surprise

After a year full of political twists and turns, we are now just 18 days away from Election Day, and the presidential race is a dead-heat with national polls showing the race tied at 48% to 48%.

This week, the Penta Swing State Snapshot explored the latest data to measure two key indicators that could inform the race’s trend lines across “swing states” in the final few weeks: how the candidates' advertising messages and levels are resonating, and which issues are registering as the most prominent in these states.

Key takeaways:

2. Trump's media visibility in Pennsylvania continues to outpace Harris': This coincides with a spike in voter registrations in the state; it remains to be seen whether the increase drives turnout.

3. In terms of top issues, abortion leads in all swing states except Georgia: Abortion remained the most visible issue across the swing states, outside of Georgia where immigration took the lead in visibility. This shift in Georgia could have major implications for voter preferences, particularly given the state's more pronounced gender gap.

4. Economy and housing see a spike in sentiment across swing states: While abortion remains the top issue, the economy and housing have also seen a notable spike in visibility. These issues, particularly inflation, are areas where Trump is polling better, suggesting that voters concerned about economic matters may be leaning toward his platform.

Let the data tell the story

With just a few weeks to go before Election Day, media visibility and issue prioritization will be pivotal in shaping voter turnout and candidate support across these critical swing states. 

For a unique analysis of what this means for the policy conversation, check back here every week for the Penta Swing State Snapshot. We've got you covered.

For an even deeper dive or to discuss how the elections will affect your business, please get in touch