The latest biweekly reading of the Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increased 0.4 points to 28.9, rising above the 13-year low in sentiment seen last period after a ceasefire to the Middle East conflict was announced.
Three of the ESI's five indicators increased during this period. Confidence in the overall U.S. economy rose the most, increasing 2.1 points from 26.2 to 28.3.
—Confidence in making a major purchase increased 0.9 points to 20.4.
—Confidence in finding a new job increased 0.8 points to 24.2.
—Confidence in buying a new home decreased 0.7 points to 24.3.
—Confidence in personal finances decreased 1.0 point to 47.5.
Beginning April 8, the United States, Israel, and Iran agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire that included reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy transit route. Markets reacted immediately, with oil prices falling and equities rising on expectations of restored energy flows, underscoring the strait's importance as roughly one-fifth of global supply passes through it. However, both countries claim that the ceasefire has been violated, and oil flows through the strait have still not resumed to pre-conflict levels.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9 percent in March, bringing annual inflation to 3.3 percent, driven largely by a surge in energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict. Gasoline prices jumped 21.2 percent and accounted for most of the monthly increase, while overall energy costs rose 10.9 percent. In contrast, core inflation remained contained, with prices excluding food and energy increasing 0.2 percent on the month and 2.6 percent year-over-year, both below expectations.
Existing-home sales declined 3.6 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), marking the lowest level since June 2025 and a weaker-than-expected start to the spring selling season. The drop reflects continued affordability constraints as mortgage rates rose back above 6 percent in March amid heightened economic uncertainty, dampening buyer demand despite earlier rate relief. NAR downgraded its 2026 sales forecast to 4 percent growth, down from 14 percent growth predicted in November, highlighting the sensitivity of housing activity to rate fluctuations.
Retail sales rose 1.7 percent in March to $752.1 billion, according to the Commerce Department, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 1.5 percent increase and marking the strongest monthly gain in more than three years. Higher gasoline prices primarily drove the increase, with sales at service stations rising 15.5 percent as energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict boosted overall spending. Excluding gasoline, retail sales increased 0.6 percent, reflecting more modest underlying demand and suggesting the strength may prove temporary as fuel costs remain elevated.
The ESI's three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 28.0 on April 8. It decreased to a low of 27.0 for the period on April 11 before climbing to 28.8 halfway through the session on April 15. Following another brief dip, the three-day moving average rose to a session high of 31.1 on April 19 before closing out the session at 30.4 on April 21.
The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, May 6, 2026.