The Penta Swing State Snapshot: The Final Stretch

With less than 30 days before Election Day and early voting well underway, Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are making their final attempt to connect with voters. In a crowded media environment, with kids back in school and no major electoral events like debates remaining to capture attention, candidates will need to be highly strategic in their messaging.

This week's Penta Swing State Snapshot analyzes the data to capture what messages are being prioritized, candidate visibility, and overall sentiment.

Key takeaways:

• Trump and Harris have balanced media visibility across the swing states. The candidates will continue to be mentioned most in the context of each other, so visibility should remain balanced through the election.
  
  
• Harris' sentiment dipped following a strong September, peaked after the Vice Presidential debate, and dipped again. This is likely attributed to scrutiny over the Biden Administration's response to Hurricane Helene and international tensions, while Trump's sentiment remains flat across swing states, with no significant movement in over a month.
  
  
• Abortion remains the top issue in the swing states, particularly in North Carolina. 
  
  
• Immigration is gaining visibility in Southwestern states like Arizona and Nevada.

Candidate visibility remains balanced

Trump and Harris continue to receive nearly equal media attention across the swing states. Coverage is intertwined, reflecting a neck-and-neck race.

Sentiment shift: Harris sentiment dips after a strong September

After elevated sentiment levels throughout September, Harris' sentiment has declined in the swing states, with a minor bump after the VP debate. This shift may be attributed to heightened scrutiny around the Biden Administration's and Harris' handling of Hurricane Helene and foreign policy. Trump's sentiment, while low, remains relatively flat across the swing states, suggesting that while both candidates are receiving steady media coverage, Harris faces a more volatile media landscape.

Abortion policy still dominates, immigration gains

Abortion remains the most visible issue in swing states North Carolina and Wisconsin. 

In North Carolina, ads against Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, are making his stance to make abortion illegal at week zero central to his campaign. Recognizing her favorable stance on the abortion issue, Harris brought her national 'Fighting for Reproductive Freedom' bus tour to Wisconsin, likely contributing to the brief spike in her visibility.

While the issue of abortion continues to dominate, across the Midwest, immigration is becoming a focal point in the final weeks leading up to the election, particularly in Arizona and Nevada.

Immigration visibility spiked in Arizona and Nevada, briefly after Harris' visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona, and discussion of immigration during the VP debate. The sharp jump in Nevada can also be attributed to Harris' recent speech in Las Vegas.  

Let the data tell the story

For a unique analysis of how campaigns are reacting to the surge in voter registration, and what this means for the policy conversation, check back here every Monday for the Penta Swing State Snapshot. We've got you covered.

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