The latest biweekly reading of the Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) fell by 1.0 point to 28.5, surpassing the prior record low from last period and marking the weakest level since the index began in 2013.
Three of the ESI's five indicators decreased during this period. Confidence in the overall U.S. economy and confidence in making a major purchase both decreased 2.7 points, down to 26.2 and 19.5, respectively.
—Confidence in personal finances decreased 1.1 points to 48.5.
—Confidence in finding a new job remained flat at 23.4.
—Confidence in buying a new home increased 1.4 points to 25.0.
On April 2, the White House announced revised tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper products. These rules apply a 50 percent duty on goods made primarily of these metals and a 25 percent rate on derivative products, with reduced tariffs for certain industrial and electrical grid equipment as well as products made abroad but with U.S. metals. Meanwhile, the White House also announced it would impose a 100 percent tariff on patented pharmaceutical imports, with lower initial rates for companies planning to onshore production. Additionally under the new rules, companies pursuing "most favored nation" pricing agreements and investing in U.S. manufacturing would receive exemptions, while certain trading partners would also face reduced rates.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' March Jobs Report showed the economy added 178,000 jobs, rebounding from February's losses, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3 percent. The report stated that the gains were driven by healthcare, construction, and transportation and warehousing. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate fell to 61.9 percent, its lowest level since late 2021 and potentially signaling that some individuals are stepping back from the job search.
AAA reported that the national average regular gasoline exceeded $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, noting that this is "ten cents higher than last week and $1.08 higher than a month ago." AAA continued to state that "Crude oil prices have been surging, surpassing $100 per barrel, as the conflict in the Middle East continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed."
Rising energy prices have prompted a wave of commentary from Federal Reserve officials, many of whom warned inflation is likely to rise and pointed to elevated uncertainty. Chair Jerome Powell noted the Fed may not be able to stay on the sidelines indefinitely, emphasizing, "We will eventually maybe face the question of what to do here…we don't know what the economic effects will be." New York Fed President John Williams highlighted uncertainty but added that the current policy is "well positioned" to balance risks, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid instead pointed to rate adjustments, stressing the need to "follow through with policy actions that validate" inflation expectations. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly underscored the broader challenge, calling for flexibility and cautioning against overly precise forward guidance in an uncertain environment.
The ESI's three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 28.7 on March 25. It then decreased slightly before rising to a high of 30.7 on March 29. The three-day moving average then trended downward, falling to a low of 26.5 on April 5 before rising up to 27.1 on April 7 to close out the session.
The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, April 22, 2026.