---
title: "ESI: Economic sentiment falls to its lowest point in over a year"
description: Economic sentiment drops to its lowest in over a year, driven by declines in personal finances, home buying, and job market confidence.
---

[Ideas | Penta ](https://pentagroup.com/insight)

# [ESI: Economic sentiment falls to its lowest point in over a year](https://pentagroup.com/insight/economic-sentiment-falls-to-its-lowest-point-in-over-a-year)

 Written by [Emma Sunkin](https://pentagroup.com/insight/author/emma-sunkin) | Nov 8, 2023 12:00:00 AM

Economic sentiment declined over the last two weeks, falling to its lowest point in over a year. The Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) decreased 1.1 points to 32.0.

<https://pentagroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Overall-11-8-23.png>

Four of the ESI’s five indicators decreased over the past two weeks. Confidence in personal finances decreased the most, falling 1.9 points to 51.8.

> —Confidence in making a new purchase fell 1.7 points to 20.2.
> 
> —Confidence in buying a new home fell 1.6 points to 18.4.
> 
> —Confidence in finding a new job fell 0.5 points to 38.3.
> 
> —Confidence in the overall U.S. economy rose 0.2 points to 31.3.

The [U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) reported that U.S. gross domestic product rose at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023. The blockbuster number was bolstered by strong consumer spending in the late summer, a trend that is unlikely to continue apace in Q4 as consumers continue to deplete household savings. Total U.S. credit card debt [stood](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2023Q3) at a record $1.08 trillion at the end of Q3, a 4.7% increase quarter-over-quarter.

In the housing market, the “lock-in-effect” (the idea that because of the cheap mortgages many Americans recently received, they are now unwilling to sell and get a higher mortgage rate on a new home) has only worsened as the 30-year mortgage rate is [close to 8%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-02/housing-crisis-gets-worse-for-americans-on-mortgage-lock-in-effect#xj4y7vzkg), the highest rate in nearly a quarter century. Coupled with relatively high home prices—existing home prices [rose](https://fortune.com/2023/11/06/housing-market-record-number-sellers-cut-asking-price-october-redfin/) for seven straight months—the lock-in-effect helps explain why U.S. existing home sales [sank](https://www.bgov.com/next/news/S2S4JYDWRGG0) to their lowest level since 2010 in September.

After months of beating expectations, the hot labor market began to slow as the U.S. [added](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) 150,000 jobs in October, only half of September’s growth and the smallest monthly increase since June. Revised August and September job growth estimates also showed a combined 101,000 fewer positions added those months than previously reported.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose slightly from 3.8% in September to 3.9% in October. These metrics represent a cooling in the labor market that some [attribute](https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/what-to-watch-in-fridays-jobs-report-how-long-can-labor-market-keep-booming-344f5a1a) to high interest rates, rising inflation, and the conflict in the Middle East.

<https://pentagroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Indicators-11-8-23.png>

The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 33.2 on October 25. It trended downward to a low of 30.5 on October 28 before rising to 32.9 on October 30. The three-day average then wavered between 31.1 and 31.7 between November 1 and November 4 before increasing to a high of 34.3 on November 6. The moving average then fell to 33.9 to close out the session.

<https://pentagroup.com/hubfs/Imported_Blog_Media/Average-11-8-23.png>

The next release of the ESI will be Wednesday, November 22, 2023.

[View full post](https://pentagroup.com/insight/economic-sentiment-falls-to-its-lowest-point-in-over-a-year)

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